"ARE MY RESULTS FAIR?" CALCULATOR

Summary

This calculator lists the chance of a loss or win occurring. This result is expressed as a percentage, as 1 in ..., and as a number of standard deviations from the average return (SDs). 68% of results fall within 1 SD, 95% of results fall within 2 SDs, and 99.7% of results fall with 3 SDs. The calc also returns a chance of bust percentage, which corresponds to reaching the specified loss at any point during the wagering. After selecting the input values, click "Calculate" to display the results. Click "Load Into Sim" to compare with simulator results. Use the simulator in chance or return mode for the games Video Poker, Hold'em High, Let It Ride, and Ultimate Texas Hold'em since they require a large number of hands for accurate calc results. For a more detailed explanation, see the calculator accuracy page. For a more detailed discussion of the results, see the interpreting results page.

Chance of loss approximates return as a normal distribution with no influence from bankroll limitations. This is a good approximation for blackjack and other games without rare high payouts. However, the distribution of video poker return does not appear like a true normal curve until reaching enough hands to expect to hit several royal flushes. Chance of bust (risk of ruin) includes influence from bankroll limitations. It corresponds to the chance of busting with a bankroll of the "size of loss" input.

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