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BLACKJACK STATISTICS

 

Summary

I often look up statistics for blackjack games, such as dealer bust rate. I also regularly get contacted by players about blackjack stats. The data below contains this type of information and can be used as a reference. For house edge and standard deviation stats, see the house edge calc.

 

Final Outcome

The table below shows the chance of the player and dealer getting a particular total, assuming a 6 deck game in which the dealer stands on soft 17. There are two dealer columns. The first column indicates the percentage when the dealer always completes the hand, including when the player busts. The second column indicates the percentage when the game ends when the player busts, with only two cards given to the dealer.

Final Outcome
Player
Dealer
(Hand Continues)
Dealer
(Hand Ends)
<17
21.28%
0%
10.91%
17
11.82%
14.52%
13.38%
18
11.28%
13.93%
12.79%
19
11.93%
13.37%
12.20%
20
16.40%
17.95%
16.75%
21
5.80%
7.29%
6.06%
BJ
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
Bust
16.73%
28.19%
23.16%

 

EV Per Hand

The table below shows the player's EV after the first 2 cards are dealt, assuming optimal strategy in a 6-deck S17 peek game. For example, the EV of A,10 vs dealer 9 is listed as 1.5 because the player will always with with a blackjack and receive 1.5x the bet. A,10 vs dealer 10 is listed as 1.388. It is less than 1.5 because the dealer may have also have a blackjack, which would result in a tie.

Your Hand Dealer's Face-up Card
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ace Total
5 -0.128 -0.096 -0.059 -0.018 0.002 -0.121 -0.186 -0.265 -0.366 -0.504 -0.219
6 -0.141 -0.107 -0.072 -0.029 -0.010 -0.153 -0.220 -0.296 -0.390 -0.523 -0.240
7 -0.109 -0.075 -0.040 0.002 0.034 -0.068 -0.213 -0.287 -0.373 -0.527 -0.214
8 -0.021 0.010 0.045 0.080 0.120 0.084 -0.059 -0.210 -0.308 -0.449 -0.126
9 0.077 0.131 0.197 0.263 0.328 0.176 0.099 -0.052 -0.217 -0.357 -0.002
10 0.370 0.422 0.475 0.529 0.584 0.401 0.288 0.148 -0.053 -0.254 0.210
11 0.480 0.528 0.579 0.629 0.674 0.465 0.348 0.226 0.085 -0.209 0.311
12 -0.253 -0.233 -0.209 -0.163 -0.154 -0.215 -0.275 -0.344 -0.426 -0.552 -0.316
13 -0.294 -0.252 -0.208 -0.164 -0.155 -0.272 -0.327 -0.385 -0.467 -0.584 -0.347
14 -0.294 -0.251 -0.208 -0.163 -0.155 -0.324 -0.370 -0.429 -0.505 -0.613 -0.371
15 -0.292 -0.251 -0.208 -0.163 -0.155 -0.367 -0.416 -0.471 -0.541 -0.641 -0.395
16 -0.293 -0.252 -0.209 -0.165 -0.158 -0.408 -0.453 -0.504 -0.570 -0.664 -0.414
17 -0.153 -0.118 -0.079 -0.045 0.007 -0.109 -0.385 -0.422 -0.463 -0.637 -0.292
18 0.121 0.148 0.174 0.200 0.281 0.397 0.104 -0.185 -0.238 -0.374 -0.006
19 0.387 0.401 0.420 0.440 0.494 0.615 0.591 0.284 -0.013 -0.112 0.268

A,2 0.046 0.074 0.104 0.138 0.186 0.122 0.053 -0.034 -0.168 -0.351 -0.020
A,3 0.022 0.050 0.083 0.139 0.186 0.076 0.017 -0.072 -0.201 -0.376 -0.050
A,4 -0.001 0.028 0.063 0.133 0.179 0.036 -0.027 -0.112 -0.234 -0.402 -0.080
A,5 -0.022 0.008 0.058 0.127 0.183 -0.008 -0.069 -0.151 -0.269 -0.430 -0.110
A,6 0.000 0.060 0.125 0.196 0.257 0.055 -0.070 -0.146 -0.255 -0.436 -0.080
A,7 0.124 0.178 0.249 0.303 0.382 0.402 0.107 -0.097 -0.206 -0.376 0.030
A,8 0.388 0.406 0.422 0.443 0.493 0.615 0.595 0.288 -0.015 -0.117 0.270
A,9 0.643 0.649 0.660 0.672 0.702 0.773 0.791 0.759 0.439 0.144 0.580
A,T 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.388 1.039 1.430

2,2 -0.080 -0.016 0.051 0.150 0.205 -0.007 -0.154 -0.238 -0.343 -0.486 -0.150
3,3 -0.134 -0.061 0.031 0.127 0.187 -0.066 -0.219 -0.295 -0.390 -0.523 -0.190
4,4 -0.021 0.012 0.048 0.104 0.158 0.087 -0.058 -0.209 -0.307 -0.448 -0.120
5,5 0.371 0.424 0.479 0.542 0.598 0.404 0.290 0.149 -0.053 -0.254 0.210
6,6 -0.206 -0.121 -0.026 0.066 0.116 -0.218 -0.280 -0.346 -0.429 -0.555 -0.260
7,7 -0.146 -0.061 0.034 0.116 0.193 -0.088 -0.379 -0.437 -0.514 -0.619 -0.270
8,8 0.026 0.096 0.165 0.237 0.321 0.216 -0.083 -0.405 -0.523 -0.575 -0.160
9,9 0.186 0.238 0.298 0.366 0.436 0.399 0.212 -0.095 -0.235 -0.374 0.060
T,T 0.638 0.648 0.658 0.671 0.703 0.772 0.790 0.756 0.438 0.152 0.580
A,A 0.486 0.529 0.581 0.634 0.680 0.474 0.362 0.236 0.096 -0.222 0.320
Total 0.092 0.125 0.161 0.201 0.233 0.143 0.057 -0.041 -0.173 -0.342 -0.005

Win / Loss / Tie

In a 6 deck S17 game, the player has a ~43.52% chance of a win, a ~47.91% chance of a loss, and a ~8.57% chance of a tie. If ties are ignored, then there is a ~47.60% chance of win and ~52.40% chance of a loss.

 

Splits and Doubles

In a 6 deck S17 game, the basic strategy player will double on ~10.02% of hands and split on ~2.42% of hands. The average outcome following a hard double is listed in the table below.

Final Outcome
Double on 9
Double on 10
Double on 11
<17
46.2%
38.5%
38.5%
17
7.7%
7.7%
7.7%
18
7.7%
7.7%
7.7%
19
30.8%
7.7%
7.7%
20
7.7%
30.8%
7.7%
21
0%
7.7%
30.8%

 

 

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